Knowledge Acquisition AIT605

Uncertain Reasoning

"I think the probability of the Mickey Mouse party winning the next election is between 80-90%" - Spokesperson for the Mickey Mouse party.

Example of Different Types of Uncertainty in One Context

Expert Prescribed Treatment
A 450mg, 3 times a day
B 600mg-800mg, 3 times a day
C About 650mg, 2-3 times a day
D Likely to be 500mg twice a day
E 500mg or 800mg (handwriting unclear) twice a day
F 400mg 4 times a day or 200mg once a day
G 500mg
H At least 500mg, twice a day
I The usual dose for this drug is 500mg, twice a day
J 10g, twice a day
K Don't know, have to look it up
L No idea whatsoever
M 13, Acacia Avenue

What Types of Uncertainty?



An AI Classification of Uncertainty


Unary Uncertainty


Set Theoretic Uncertainty


Another Typology of Uncertainty


Fuzziness


Membership in a Fuzzy Set


Fuzzy Set Membership Values Are Not Probabilities

Negation


AND

OR


Probability Tables




Probability Based Expert Systems?


Problem


References

  1. Representing Uncertain Knowledge, by Krause & Clarke. (In the library)
  2. Web pages from postgraduate course on UR
  3. Bayesian People and other Bayes Resources.
  4. Cattle Disease Diagnosis System.
  5. Lincoln University Bayesian Logic Notes.
  6. Bayes Links Page (not very complete).
  7. Bayes: Some Technical References.
  8. Bayes Networks.
  9. Bayes' Theorem.
  10. Bayes' Theorem.
  11. Biography of Thomas Bayes (interesting).